It’s very easy to dismiss polls the year prior to an election. Historically, the frontrunner the year before usually does not win the nomination. Rudy Giuliani was polling at 32% in September, 2007, more than double the polling numbers of the eventual nominee, Senator John McCain.
This year might be a little different. Back then, fewer people were on social media. Now, so many people are voicing their political opinions on sites like Twitter and Facebook that there’s a new degree of permanence to one’s chosen candidate.
Back in 2007, it was easy to support Giuliani or any of the other candidates without it being in the public record. No friends or family could call you out on it if you changed your mind. Today, it’s much harder to abandon a candidate once you’ve let the world know you support them through social media. This is why Donald Trump’s use of social media and the support he’s receiving through it may make changing to a more sensible candidate a problem in the future.
Nobody likes to waffle, especially if they’re trumpeting their support for Trump to all of their friends and family. Hopefully, logic and humility will prevail and their change of heart once they realize what Trump is really about won’t be overruled by the need to save face.